* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 10/03/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 86 79 73 69 57 48 46 43 40 37 35 34 32 30 28 28 V (KT) LAND 95 86 79 73 58 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 95 87 80 74 59 38 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 26 30 32 31 41 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 6 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 245 260 258 249 255 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.7 30.9 30.6 29.7 28.3 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 170 170 169 160 145 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 5 6 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 58 58 58 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 15 12 7 7 4 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 41 25 17 28 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 118 101 77 30 -22 -126 -231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.0 23.9 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.7 106.6 106.4 106.2 105.9 105.4 104.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 29 32 31 24 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -18. -17. -17. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -15. -21. -25. -26. -27. -30. -33. -36. -40. -43. -46. -46. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -22. -26. -38. -47. -49. -52. -55. -58. -60. -61. -63. -65. -67. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 20.9 106.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 10/03/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 345.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 10/03/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##