* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 10/02/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 115 106 97 80 63 49 44 41 39 35 33 31 31 32 35 V (KT) LAND 115 117 115 106 97 80 50 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 115 117 112 104 95 81 52 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 20 22 30 40 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 3 8 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 227 221 238 250 251 254 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 29.3 30.0 30.5 30.8 30.4 29.2 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 156 163 168 169 167 153 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 5 4 6 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 58 55 57 59 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 16 14 10 3 0 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 38 32 39 34 10 -2 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 173 123 94 100 73 15 -52 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.6 23.2 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.9 106.7 106.6 106.5 106.3 106.0 105.7 105.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 17 23 27 31 29 19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -0. -0. -4. -12. -21. -27. -32. -35. -36. -35. -35. -35. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -19. -21. -19. -18. -18. -21. -24. -27. -29. -27. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -0. -9. -18. -35. -52. -66. -71. -74. -76. -80. -82. -84. -84. -83. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 19.3 106.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 10/02/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.05 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 493.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.35 -1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.69 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 14.1% 13.2% 12.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 5.0% 4.7% 4.1% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 10/02/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##