* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 10/02/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 111 111 106 98 81 65 51 46 44 42 40 38 38 38 38 40 V (KT) LAND 105 111 111 106 98 81 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 105 111 110 104 95 80 55 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 13 16 20 27 37 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 3 5 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 234 222 228 243 259 251 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.3 29.7 30.1 30.5 30.8 29.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 160 164 169 169 157 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 5 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 57 56 56 58 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 12 8 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 1 0 11 9 7 7 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 39 24 43 41 22 30 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 0 1 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 208 160 113 69 73 26 -37 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.3 20.9 22.1 22.9 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.8 106.7 106.5 106.4 106.2 105.9 105.6 105.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 16 19 23 28 33 21 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -14. -19. -23. -26. -26. -25. -25. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. -22. -24. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -17. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 6. 1. -7. -24. -40. -54. -59. -61. -63. -65. -67. -67. -67. -67. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.6 106.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 10/02/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.13 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.34 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.42 -2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.89 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.4% 20.2% 18.9% 18.2% 11.6% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.4% 3.4% 3.7% 2.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.5% 8.0% 7.5% 6.8% 4.4% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 10/02/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##