* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 10/02/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 100 98 93 78 65 53 45 42 40 38 37 35 34 33 34 V (KT) LAND 90 97 100 98 93 78 65 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 90 99 102 99 93 77 66 41 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 13 14 19 25 32 45 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 1 0 2 5 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 177 215 230 222 217 242 242 246 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.7 30.4 28.6 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 155 159 163 170 167 149 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 5 7 7 4 7 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 61 60 58 56 56 58 58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 18 7 10 16 15 10 15 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 71 36 30 43 37 40 7 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 257 217 176 130 94 76 8 -97 -231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.7 20.3 21.5 22.6 23.6 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.0 106.9 106.8 106.7 106.6 106.3 105.9 105.5 104.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 15 19 23 30 31 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -18. -19. -21. -23. -26. -28. -30. -30. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 8. 3. -12. -25. -37. -45. -48. -50. -52. -53. -55. -56. -57. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.1 107.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 10/02/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.23 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.40 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.5% 23.6% 21.9% 21.6% 13.5% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.3% 5.9% 6.1% 3.5% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.1% 10.1% 9.5% 8.4% 5.4% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 28.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 10/02/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##