* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 10/01/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 78 79 76 68 57 49 42 39 38 39 40 40 40 40 40 V (KT) LAND 70 75 78 79 76 68 57 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 78 79 78 68 57 41 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 11 15 22 25 40 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -1 1 4 5 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 154 173 190 216 227 234 249 248 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.6 30.4 30.9 29.0 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 150 154 160 167 170 153 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 7 5 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 60 58 57 61 59 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 15 13 8 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 39 23 13 10 20 8 2 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 63 70 47 48 50 26 25 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 292 264 238 187 136 100 48 -67 -164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.9 21.9 23.3 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.1 107.0 106.9 106.7 106.5 106.1 105.6 105.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 14 14 18 27 34 17 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -13. -17. -19. -20. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 9. 6. -2. -13. -21. -28. -31. -31. -31. -30. -30. -30. -30. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.7 107.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 10/01/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 6.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.5% 36.1% 31.2% 24.7% 17.7% 19.1% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 16.3% 9.4% 8.8% 4.4% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.6% 6.9% 2.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.4% 17.5% 14.3% 10.1% 7.0% 6.7% 4.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 25.0% 18.0% 11.0% 10.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 10/01/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##