* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 10/01/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 65 66 59 50 44 37 35 34 35 36 37 37 37 37 V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 65 66 59 50 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 65 64 58 49 39 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 6 6 9 12 20 25 36 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 2 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 101 171 164 206 222 221 251 244 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.3 30.1 30.8 29.9 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 152 156 164 170 162 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 5 7 4 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 64 60 59 57 59 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 16 14 15 8 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 28 45 29 19 23 29 19 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 57 78 89 50 49 31 21 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 321 289 259 216 173 83 72 -22 -119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.8 19.3 20.4 21.7 23.0 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.1 107.1 107.0 106.9 106.5 106.3 105.9 105.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 14 15 23 31 25 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -1. 0. -5. -12. -17. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 5. 6. -1. -10. -16. -23. -25. -26. -25. -24. -23. -23. -23. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.3 107.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 10/01/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.69 7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 7.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.5% 41.1% 34.3% 25.2% 20.5% 20.0% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 7.6% 6.1% 3.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 16.7% 13.7% 9.5% 7.4% 6.9% 4.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 23.0% 12.0% 7.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 10/01/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##