* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 10/01/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 68 71 72 63 52 45 35 27 26 26 25 24 22 22 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 68 71 72 63 52 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 64 66 65 56 49 39 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 7 9 19 22 30 39 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -4 0 4 1 6 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 121 166 180 184 224 233 253 245 247 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.6 30.4 30.9 29.9 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 151 160 168 169 163 143 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 8 9 5 7 4 6 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 66 64 63 58 56 61 58 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 18 17 15 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 14 20 33 49 26 45 34 17 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 65 67 71 88 54 41 5 30 -11 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 369 341 316 273 232 142 112 60 -29 -141 -268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.8 21.3 22.4 23.6 24.9 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.3 107.3 107.2 107.0 106.9 106.6 106.4 106.4 106.2 105.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 14 14 19 27 34 26 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -14. -23. -25. -27. -28. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 0. -7. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 17. 8. -3. -10. -20. -28. -29. -29. -30. -31. -33. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.8 107.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 10/01/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 9.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 9.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 7.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.2% 56.6% 45.0% 31.0% 22.8% 33.2% 17.0% 10.7% Logistic: 12.8% 20.3% 16.8% 9.6% 6.1% 3.1% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 5.5% 3.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.4% 27.5% 21.6% 14.0% 9.8% 12.3% 5.8% 3.6% DTOPS: 19.0% 54.0% 43.0% 28.0% 24.0% 14.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 10/01/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##