* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 09/30/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 69 75 78 71 56 48 40 31 29 28 28 27 25 25 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 69 75 78 71 56 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 66 69 70 63 53 40 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 4 3 3 4 14 24 28 37 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 5 2 7 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 112 126 139 160 213 231 239 249 241 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 29.0 30.2 30.9 29.8 28.1 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 148 153 166 170 161 143 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 6 8 6 6 5 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 68 66 67 65 59 57 59 60 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 16 18 16 10 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 14 12 18 30 40 33 46 20 17 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 82 82 73 68 75 64 26 39 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 1 5 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 397 369 344 312 281 202 106 68 -37 -134 -238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.0 19.1 20.6 22.3 23.6 24.7 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.2 107.3 107.3 107.2 107.1 106.7 106.4 106.3 106.1 105.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 8 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 15 15 15 14 14 24 34 24 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -5. -13. -21. -23. -24. -25. -27. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. -2. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 23. 16. 1. -7. -15. -24. -26. -27. -27. -28. -30. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.4 107.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 09/30/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.83 10.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 9.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 51.2% 42.9% 30.7% 22.0% 33.5% 16.8% 10.9% Logistic: 7.5% 18.4% 15.3% 8.5% 4.0% 3.5% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 5.7% 3.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 25.1% 20.5% 13.5% 8.7% 12.6% 5.9% 3.7% DTOPS: 24.0% 56.0% 41.0% 24.0% 19.0% 41.0% 8.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 09/30/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##