* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 09/30/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 63 68 75 70 58 52 45 38 36 36 37 37 37 38 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 63 68 75 70 58 52 45 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 57 60 64 68 63 55 52 49 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 3 2 1 9 21 25 31 40 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 4 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 92 69 122 119 115 178 218 223 242 237 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.5 30.3 30.8 30.4 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 147 148 150 158 167 169 167 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 6 8 5 7 4 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 68 66 67 64 57 59 60 56 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 16 11 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 0 13 10 18 50 28 35 29 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 53 74 76 67 83 58 35 9 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 1 1 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 438 408 383 356 331 249 156 118 90 0 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.5 19.7 20.9 22.2 23.2 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.2 107.4 107.4 107.4 107.2 107.0 106.7 106.6 106.4 106.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 4 6 6 7 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 14 15 15 15 13 18 25 32 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. -1. -7. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. -0. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 25. 20. 8. 2. -4. -12. -14. -14. -13. -13. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.9 107.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 09/30/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.90 9.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 42.3% 34.9% 25.1% 17.6% 40.5% 31.3% 12.6% Logistic: 6.3% 18.2% 14.7% 8.3% 2.5% 5.7% 1.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 3.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 21.4% 17.1% 11.3% 6.8% 15.5% 10.9% 4.2% DTOPS: 11.0% 43.0% 31.0% 21.0% 17.0% 34.0% 11.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 09/30/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##