* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 09/30/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 68 74 82 82 65 53 46 38 30 24 23 22 19 19 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 68 74 82 82 65 53 46 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 60 65 70 76 74 63 55 53 38 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 6 7 8 17 24 29 33 46 49 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 1 0 7 4 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 100 77 85 100 122 170 197 232 240 243 237 245 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.7 29.7 30.5 30.9 28.8 27.9 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 152 151 148 150 160 169 170 151 141 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -53.1 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 68 65 66 59 56 59 58 54 51 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 19 17 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 1 9 23 18 40 43 30 35 23 21 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 65 82 108 102 86 99 59 10 11 33 31 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 448 425 408 379 353 300 222 146 133 30 -82 -179 -257 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.3 18.1 19.2 20.5 21.7 22.9 24.1 25.3 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.1 107.4 107.5 107.5 107.5 107.4 107.1 106.9 106.5 106.2 106.1 106.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 17 18 18 18 14 12 20 27 33 14 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -13. -19. -26. -28. -29. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -8. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 24. 32. 32. 15. 3. -4. -12. -20. -26. -27. -28. -31. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.7 106.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 09/30/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.71 9.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 8.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -7.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.1% 56.6% 45.6% 34.1% 23.0% 50.0% 41.7% 14.0% Logistic: 9.3% 20.9% 15.3% 9.6% 3.7% 7.8% 2.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 3.0% 15.8% 11.5% 5.9% 0.9% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 9.5% 31.1% 24.1% 16.5% 9.2% 20.2% 14.8% 4.8% DTOPS: 26.0% 54.0% 36.0% 27.0% 16.0% 41.0% 28.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 09/30/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##