* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 09/30/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 67 75 79 70 55 49 43 35 30 29 28 26 26 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 67 75 79 70 55 49 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 59 64 72 74 66 57 52 40 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 5 6 10 16 24 22 31 41 49 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 -5 0 1 3 5 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 100 109 102 96 115 172 172 206 228 243 234 246 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.6 29.1 30.1 31.0 29.2 27.9 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 152 151 147 148 154 165 170 155 142 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -53.2 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 9 6 8 5 7 4 6 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 67 65 65 59 56 55 57 56 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 16 17 18 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 4 12 24 35 65 33 46 32 15 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 63 64 80 95 89 123 71 21 10 15 20 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 1 0 1 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 461 436 417 402 392 332 246 193 167 60 -67 -179 -277 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.1 18.0 19.1 20.0 21.5 22.8 24.0 25.3 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.0 107.4 107.6 107.8 107.8 107.6 107.5 107.2 106.8 106.3 106.1 106.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 16 17 17 17 14 12 15 24 33 17 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 23. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -4. -10. -17. -23. -24. -26. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 0. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 22. 30. 34. 25. 10. 4. -2. -10. -15. -16. -17. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.4 106.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 09/30/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 8.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.79 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 45.0% 35.3% 25.2% 16.8% 42.8% 49.2% 20.0% Logistic: 12.9% 30.1% 23.5% 14.7% 6.8% 14.6% 4.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 2.7% 17.4% 11.2% 5.2% 1.8% 3.5% 1.1% 0.1% Consensus: 9.9% 30.8% 23.3% 15.0% 8.5% 20.3% 18.2% 6.9% DTOPS: 15.0% 48.0% 30.0% 21.0% 12.0% 30.0% 26.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 09/30/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##