* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 09/29/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 57 63 74 81 83 78 62 48 44 39 40 40 39 40 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 57 63 74 81 83 78 62 48 36 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 52 57 66 72 75 71 58 50 39 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 3 4 8 13 15 17 19 24 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 0 2 0 -5 -2 3 2 2 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 69 127 158 93 107 145 168 210 230 231 248 241 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.6 29.4 30.1 30.8 28.8 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 152 150 147 144 149 157 165 170 152 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 70 70 68 65 61 52 52 50 50 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 14 16 17 19 21 22 20 11 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 10 1 5 15 33 44 51 34 42 39 11 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 71 77 70 90 117 103 92 23 28 7 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 457 460 459 449 446 410 353 272 235 173 68 -74 -223 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.7 20.9 22.1 23.4 25.0 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.9 107.5 107.9 108.2 108.4 108.4 108.2 107.9 107.6 107.5 107.2 106.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 15 15 15 14 12 13 20 22 30 13 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -7. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 9. -4. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 23. 34. 41. 43. 38. 22. 8. 4. -1. -0. 0. -1. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.2 106.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 09/29/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 46.9% 31.8% 24.1% 14.7% 41.1% 49.3% 32.0% Logistic: 9.9% 33.4% 24.2% 15.0% 7.2% 16.7% 8.6% 1.3% Bayesian: 1.1% 11.3% 6.5% 2.6% 0.7% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4% Consensus: 8.0% 30.5% 20.8% 13.9% 7.5% 20.6% 19.8% 11.2% DTOPS: 12.0% 52.0% 28.0% 19.0% 9.0% 39.0% 33.0% 34.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 09/29/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##