* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 09/29/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 57 69 76 80 81 71 47 42 36 37 38 38 39 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 57 69 76 80 81 71 47 36 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 60 68 71 69 60 48 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 6 4 8 13 15 14 15 26 35 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -3 0 1 0 -4 1 7 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 81 139 160 153 126 174 197 241 230 242 242 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.4 29.0 29.9 30.9 29.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 153 150 146 144 146 153 163 170 157 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 8 7 8 7 8 6 7 4 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 73 72 70 70 66 63 59 55 53 54 52 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 17 20 22 23 24 19 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -5 8 5 8 30 36 57 38 54 46 29 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 68 70 84 90 112 92 95 62 28 24 32 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 3 -1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 438 448 453 447 453 431 380 298 240 203 60 -52 -109 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.4 18.2 19.3 20.4 21.7 23.2 24.6 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.2 107.1 107.7 108.2 108.5 108.5 108.3 108.0 107.6 107.2 107.1 107.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 5 4 5 6 6 7 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 16 15 16 15 13 12 13 16 21 31 19 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 26. 29. 30. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -12. -12. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 9. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 22. 34. 41. 45. 46. 36. 12. 7. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 105.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 09/29/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 35.0% 23.2% 22.2% 13.3% 28.7% 40.4% 31.3% Logistic: 11.3% 38.3% 26.7% 17.2% 11.4% 25.0% 11.2% 1.8% Bayesian: 1.1% 14.6% 7.6% 2.9% 1.7% 6.7% 3.8% 0.8% Consensus: 8.0% 29.3% 19.2% 14.1% 8.8% 20.1% 18.5% 11.3% DTOPS: 6.0% 39.0% 15.0% 9.0% 4.0% 43.0% 30.0% 34.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 09/29/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##