* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162022 09/29/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 55 66 72 77 75 69 45 39 35 36 37 37 38 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 55 66 72 77 75 69 42 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 43 46 55 64 68 66 57 47 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 3 4 3 3 9 17 19 16 26 34 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -7 -5 4 2 -1 -3 7 7 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 46 51 88 181 182 106 159 169 202 230 237 245 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.7 30.2 30.8 28.1 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 150 149 147 144 142 144 151 167 170 143 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.7 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 75 73 73 69 65 64 58 56 52 53 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 14 16 20 21 24 23 20 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -9 0 9 9 19 42 50 50 41 43 9 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 84 91 87 104 105 128 110 55 9 19 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -7 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 1 -2 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 425 425 439 439 452 465 391 287 198 157 -7 -119 -186 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.9 19.0 20.3 22.0 23.8 24.8 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.4 105.4 106.3 107.1 107.9 108.6 108.4 108.0 107.6 107.3 106.9 106.4 105.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 6 4 5 6 8 9 7 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 15 13 13 12 11 11 10 13 24 32 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 14. 11. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 20. 31. 37. 42. 40. 34. 10. 4. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 104.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 SIXTEEN 09/29/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.83 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 39.7% 27.7% 23.4% 14.0% 34.4% 50.1% 32.3% Logistic: 10.5% 43.0% 32.0% 23.6% 10.8% 41.3% 9.5% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 6.5% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 1.6% 1.5% 0.9% Consensus: 7.8% 29.7% 21.3% 16.2% 8.4% 25.8% 20.4% 11.6% DTOPS: 5.0% 26.0% 14.0% 10.0% 6.0% 27.0% 23.0% 51.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 SIXTEEN 09/29/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##