* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/29/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 20 21 24 28 31 32 32 29 27 25 24 24 24 23 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 20 21 24 28 31 32 32 29 27 25 24 24 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 3 3 3 8 10 11 15 17 19 21 21 21 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 0 0 -2 -5 -5 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 100 114 112 112 122 151 170 179 191 197 200 202 210 214 213 237 232 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 27.9 26.9 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.6 27.0 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 146 147 143 132 127 126 126 126 123 124 128 128 133 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 43 46 49 49 50 52 52 52 46 46 42 43 40 39 37 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 45 44 36 32 22 18 6 11 -1 -1 -18 -25 -29 -27 -19 -7 0 200 MB DIV -39 -48 -57 -47 -26 -11 -30 -5 -20 -8 -12 13 -9 2 13 12 -2 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -7 -7 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 1816 1879 1970 2055 2125 2244 2310 2329 2282 2203 2128 2037 1915 1788 1655 1481 1290 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.1 127.2 128.3 129.4 131.3 132.5 133.3 133.7 134.4 135.0 135.8 136.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 10 8 5 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 8 6 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 3 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 12. 12. 9. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.9 125.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/29/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -43.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 9.4% 4.5% 2.4% 0.9% 6.0% 1.2% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 3.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/29/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##