* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/28/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 41 42 40 36 32 30 28 27 26 25 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 41 42 40 36 32 30 28 27 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 31 30 28 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 8 6 5 7 12 17 22 25 27 23 24 20 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -6 -6 -1 -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 -6 0 0 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 93 85 92 101 110 113 142 162 171 183 194 200 206 206 226 216 230 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.6 26.8 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 145 146 146 140 131 126 125 125 126 124 124 126 128 132 133 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 42 43 45 48 51 53 53 52 54 48 47 43 43 39 38 36 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 57 48 43 41 37 24 17 10 15 5 6 -10 -16 -27 -28 -25 -19 200 MB DIV 25 -14 -38 -58 -76 -41 -5 -10 -12 -14 -23 12 1 -2 0 19 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1718 1801 1870 1950 2040 2195 2299 2365 2283 2236 2178 2102 2029 1941 1834 1692 1542 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.9 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.7 125.6 126.6 127.7 129.9 131.7 133.0 133.8 134.2 134.7 135.3 135.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 10 8 6 3 2 3 3 4 4 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 8 8 7 5 1 0 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 15. 11. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 123.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/28/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.67 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.93 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.5% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 19.0% 11.3% 7.0% 5.4% 12.5% 5.6% 6.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 10.9% 5.8% 2.3% 1.8% 4.2% 1.9% 2.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/28/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##