* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/27/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 33 38 44 47 49 48 47 47 45 44 43 41 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 33 38 44 47 49 48 47 47 45 44 43 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 36 39 42 42 41 39 36 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 5 5 5 10 10 6 4 5 11 9 13 18 20 20 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -3 -4 -6 -8 -6 -2 -5 -5 -4 -1 -4 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 181 180 187 163 140 83 99 76 74 151 162 191 199 208 229 227 229 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.3 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 149 148 148 147 147 145 137 125 123 124 125 125 125 124 122 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 44 45 42 41 43 44 49 54 55 53 54 50 47 44 41 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 81 83 74 71 68 52 48 37 26 22 15 18 13 7 -1 -18 -32 200 MB DIV -9 -8 10 43 50 -28 -60 -54 -3 7 -18 -11 7 5 -2 -12 -8 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 2 1 4 0 LAND (KM) 1381 1463 1537 1604 1688 1847 2012 2170 2300 2386 2262 2159 2067 1959 1868 1785 1722 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 14.8 14.5 14.2 13.8 13.4 13.2 13.3 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.0 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.4 122.1 122.7 123.4 125.1 127.0 129.0 131.1 132.8 134.1 135.0 135.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 9 8 10 10 10 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 11 10 10 9 8 8 4 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 13. 19. 22. 24. 23. 22. 22. 20. 19. 18. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 120.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/27/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.70 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.67 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.2% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 19.1% 17.5% 9.7% 8.2% 15.2% 3.9% 18.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 11.8% 10.7% 3.2% 2.7% 9.2% 4.6% 6.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/27/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##