* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142022 09/20/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 23 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 18 17 14 11 12 9 8 6 11 15 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -5 -4 -4 0 0 0 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 95 94 90 97 114 139 155 184 216 272 289 259 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.2 25.6 26.2 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.4 25.8 25.9 25.2 24.7 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 114 118 124 128 130 129 127 121 122 114 109 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 61 60 58 56 52 49 46 39 33 29 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 10 8 7 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 50 38 39 40 51 46 45 45 40 25 14 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 6 23 17 20 5 4 7 9 -35 -46 -9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 2 5 2 8 5 8 2 5 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 295 354 411 442 477 602 730 858 1041 1176 1284 1407 1568 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.2 21.1 21.0 20.7 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.0 113.7 114.4 115.0 116.7 118.2 119.6 121.7 123.5 125.0 126.5 128.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 16. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -26. -30. -31. -32. -31. -29. -27. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.2 112.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142022 MADELINE 09/20/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142022 MADELINE 09/20/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##