* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142022 09/17/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 42 42 43 42 41 36 31 28 29 28 32 35 40 45 49 V (KT) LAND 40 42 42 42 43 42 41 36 31 28 29 28 32 35 40 45 49 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 44 44 43 41 38 33 28 23 21 19 18 19 20 21 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 27 21 18 18 20 17 22 17 14 10 11 4 4 2 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 1 0 -1 -2 1 0 0 0 0 -6 -3 -2 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 90 88 87 82 84 93 92 93 88 82 76 97 159 210 179 311 301 SST (C) 28.0 28.5 28.6 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.0 25.6 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 148 149 143 141 141 133 118 119 126 132 133 130 130 130 121 117 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 80 81 82 84 84 80 75 71 73 75 75 72 69 64 62 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 20 20 20 20 19 17 17 17 16 18 19 20 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 76 72 69 76 85 84 84 78 66 57 55 59 57 62 77 69 53 200 MB DIV 102 105 103 81 82 80 63 14 0 31 37 -13 11 3 -1 -12 -14 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -10 -7 -6 -4 0 0 -1 0 1 2 1 2 2 1 -1 LAND (KM) 453 385 319 292 279 313 301 294 341 426 474 572 666 762 858 938 997 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 16 21 11 8 7 4 0 0 1 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -11. -9. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -3. -4. -3. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -4. -9. -12. -11. -12. -8. -5. 0. 5. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.7 106.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142022 MADELINE 09/17/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142022 MADELINE 09/17/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##