* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 06/27/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 51 56 55 52 50 49 46 43 40 37 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 51 56 55 52 50 49 46 43 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 33 35 37 39 39 37 34 30 26 22 19 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 14 13 9 4 4 3 1 5 9 11 12 13 15 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 1 3 -1 1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 94 95 89 76 90 48 94 34 160 230 246 224 243 250 256 240 237 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.6 28.1 26.6 25.9 25.1 23.4 23.9 23.0 23.1 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 150 150 153 152 149 153 147 132 125 116 98 103 92 93 93 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 78 78 77 77 73 71 68 64 61 59 55 52 49 46 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 10 14 17 16 0 17 10 -2 -10 -24 -21 -13 -23 -30 -37 -50 200 MB DIV 8 -15 -28 -2 -5 28 48 21 14 42 45 32 9 -17 -16 -6 -17 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -5 -4 2 -1 2 1 7 -1 0 9 4 9 9 9 11 LAND (KM) 544 534 542 557 580 676 755 884 998 1132 1314 1503 1659 1817 1967 2100 2058 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.9 12.8 13.8 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.6 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.4 96.4 97.7 99.1 100.6 103.9 107.5 110.9 114.1 117.3 120.6 123.8 126.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 14 15 18 18 17 16 16 16 15 14 13 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 14 20 22 26 17 12 15 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. 30. 28. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 20. 26. 31. 30. 27. 25. 24. 21. 18. 15. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 95.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 06/27/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.33 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 16.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.1% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 3.8% 4.2% 5.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 06/27/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##