* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/08/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 50 45 41 33 26 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 53 51 46 41 34 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 59 54 48 43 36 31 27 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 4 4 6 12 14 13 15 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 215 195 201 268 272 268 239 229 235 247 248 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.1 23.9 22.8 21.5 20.5 20.4 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 105 105 104 101 88 74 63 62 68 72 75 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.3 -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -51.3 -51.8 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 61 62 62 61 62 53 41 33 29 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 28 26 24 22 16 14 12 11 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 92 85 75 67 44 27 -2 9 9 13 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 50 28 20 13 25 14 -13 2 -14 -8 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 14 -1 -7 -3 -5 -4 -4 -2 -4 -2 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 43 -4 70 46 74 165 250 288 393 468 439 432 446 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.7 28.8 29.7 30.5 31.4 31.8 31.8 31.1 30.4 29.9 29.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.1 114.8 115.4 116.2 116.9 118.4 119.6 120.4 121.3 121.4 120.8 120.3 120.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 9 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 14 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -19. -25. -29. -33. -37. -42. -46. -51. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -25. -29. -30. -31. -31. -31. -28. -25. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -20. -24. -32. -39. -50. -58. -63. -69. -75. -81. -82. -84. -85. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 26.6 114.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/08/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/08/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##