* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112022 09/02/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 52 52 49 43 38 33 28 22 22 22 22 23 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 52 52 49 43 38 33 28 22 22 22 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 34 36 37 35 31 27 24 22 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 5 9 6 7 9 7 9 4 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 4 -1 3 1 0 2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 260 266 252 205 147 179 271 235 241 208 171 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.6 28.7 27.9 27.4 25.3 23.7 22.3 21.5 21.6 21.9 22.3 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 151 143 138 117 100 86 77 78 80 84 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -50.9 -50.3 -50.6 -50.0 -50.3 -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -50.2 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 74 73 72 65 64 56 54 49 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 22 22 23 21 19 16 15 14 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 75 87 111 113 108 107 92 93 93 105 94 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 88 83 99 77 -13 -1 0 13 -6 -10 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -2 -2 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 413 375 363 355 312 349 430 594 878 1094 1248 1391 1541 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.5 22.3 23.9 25.1 25.7 25.9 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.8 112.5 113.1 113.7 115.6 118.1 120.5 123.6 126.1 127.9 129.7 131.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 10 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 36 20 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 15. 15. 14. 12. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 22. 22. 19. 13. 8. 3. -2. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.3 111.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112022 ELEVEN 09/02/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 34.5% 22.7% 21.3% 0.0% 18.8% 15.1% 9.0% Logistic: 12.6% 43.4% 23.3% 15.4% 3.4% 12.7% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 26.6% 15.6% 12.3% 1.1% 10.5% 5.4% 3.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112022 ELEVEN 09/02/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##