* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102022 08/21/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 29 31 33 35 37 38 38 37 35 33 31 30 30 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 29 31 33 35 37 38 38 37 35 33 31 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 5 3 1 1 4 6 5 9 6 8 10 16 16 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 -3 -4 -6 -1 -3 0 1 0 0 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 91 104 124 177 1 163 227 253 264 225 235 219 213 219 227 231 236 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 25.8 25.1 24.9 25.1 24.7 24.6 24.7 25.1 25.2 25.7 25.8 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 121 114 112 113 109 107 109 113 113 118 119 117 122 125 129 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 57 54 53 49 47 46 43 40 38 37 35 32 30 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 34 25 12 36 39 39 38 44 41 47 33 31 17 17 12 200 MB DIV 64 53 48 55 36 6 -15 -26 -13 0 -13 -25 -10 -16 -14 -12 -10 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 2 2 3 4 1 1 -1 0 -4 -2 -4 -3 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1690 1742 1797 1851 1908 2038 2137 1979 1836 1703 1572 1448 1337 1223 1102 976 847 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.1 19.3 19.3 18.9 18.6 18.2 18.1 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.7 128.7 129.7 130.7 132.6 134.4 135.9 137.3 138.6 139.9 141.1 142.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. 19. 17. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.1 126.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102022 IVETTE 08/21/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.7% 2.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102022 IVETTE 08/21/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##