* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102022 08/20/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 29 34 40 43 48 49 49 48 47 46 45 46 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 29 34 40 43 48 49 49 48 47 46 45 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 33 32 32 31 30 29 27 26 24 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 7 6 5 2 2 0 2 3 5 6 6 10 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 -3 -3 -5 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 0 -1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 81 81 105 142 171 86 88 160 182 199 218 204 233 208 224 205 214 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.5 26.7 25.6 25.2 25.5 25.6 25.3 25.2 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 141 141 139 131 120 115 118 118 115 114 116 118 122 120 119 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 55 54 56 57 58 59 60 55 56 52 49 47 46 45 42 40 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 45 37 38 47 41 48 42 28 50 40 30 20 16 26 26 17 -1 200 MB DIV 14 20 20 34 64 43 32 14 1 -10 -32 -17 -10 -20 -12 4 -1 700-850 TADV 1 3 2 2 1 -3 -3 2 1 1 2 0 -4 -2 -2 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 1390 1452 1492 1542 1604 1704 1831 1973 2133 2092 1947 1815 1677 1558 1459 1363 1303 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.6 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.4 18.1 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.1 122.8 123.4 124.1 125.0 127.1 129.2 131.3 133.2 134.9 136.3 137.6 139.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 8 9 11 11 10 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 14 14 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. 23. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 9. 15. 18. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. 21. 20. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.3 122.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102022 IVETTE 08/20/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 9.9% 6.8% 3.7% 0.9% 6.4% 2.8% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 8.7% 7.5% 1.2% 0.3% 7.0% 5.3% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102022 IVETTE 08/20/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##