* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102022 08/13/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 33 35 35 36 34 32 32 31 32 34 36 38 40 43 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 33 35 35 36 34 32 32 31 32 34 36 38 40 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 33 31 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 19 18 18 21 23 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 80 65 71 78 84 101 105 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 140 140 139 137 135 135 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 64 66 62 61 61 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 7 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 22 15 16 16 23 33 33 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 41 31 6 1 12 21 -22 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 572 569 579 599 622 678 722 752 783 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.9 111.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102022 TEN 08/13/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.17 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.94 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 12.1% 7.1% 5.2% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.2% 2.4% 1.7% 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102022 TEN 08/13/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##