* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092022 08/08/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 59 59 55 51 45 38 33 28 23 18 18 18 18 18 V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 59 59 55 51 45 38 33 28 23 18 18 18 18 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 62 62 60 54 47 39 32 26 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 6 7 9 13 12 13 14 16 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 2 3 0 -3 0 -1 0 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 214 228 225 209 189 200 214 235 228 238 233 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.2 25.9 24.8 23.2 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 135 125 122 111 94 86 81 75 78 81 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 58 60 54 49 43 40 36 34 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 15 16 14 15 13 11 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 44 34 22 17 7 5 -3 -6 -17 -15 -16 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 12 11 -17 -9 -17 -4 4 4 -17 -18 -11 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 11 5 0 4 3 5 8 6 7 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 471 483 469 470 495 584 647 751 896 1036 1149 1284 1441 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.5 21.2 21.8 22.4 23.3 24.1 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.4 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.9 114.7 115.6 116.4 118.2 120.0 121.7 123.3 124.8 126.0 127.3 128.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -22. -25. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 4. -0. -4. -10. -17. -22. -27. -32. -37. -37. -37. -37. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.8 113.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092022 HOWARD 08/08/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.74 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 21.0% 19.6% 18.9% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 7.7% 7.3% 6.5% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 9.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092022 HOWARD 08/08/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##