* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082022 07/29/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 51 52 54 53 52 48 46 45 44 44 43 42 42 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 51 52 54 53 52 48 46 45 44 44 43 42 42 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 52 53 53 53 51 49 46 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 16 15 18 22 19 24 19 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 2 0 1 -1 0 6 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 89 84 85 78 95 101 89 77 72 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.1 26.6 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 141 141 142 142 141 142 134 128 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 44 44 45 44 48 53 57 62 69 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 9 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 65 63 78 70 50 66 95 105 98 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 40 50 46 39 23 32 47 52 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 4 8 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1515 1591 1668 1738 1808 1888 1905 1835 1637 1501 1409 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.5 14.2 14.0 14.1 14.5 16.0 17.0 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.4 124.2 124.8 125.4 126.2 126.5 126.0 124.9 124.1 123.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 5 3 1 6 8 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.2 122.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/29/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.27 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 345.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 -2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 20.1% 15.0% 13.4% 0.0% 14.7% 11.6% 7.9% Logistic: 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 7.2% 5.4% 4.6% 0.1% 4.9% 3.9% 2.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/29/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##