* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082022 07/27/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 43 44 48 52 56 58 57 54 51 48 47 45 43 42 V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 43 44 48 52 56 58 57 54 51 48 47 45 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 44 45 46 48 49 49 49 46 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 16 16 10 9 8 20 32 37 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 3 1 0 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 113 105 94 94 111 106 127 87 69 69 69 83 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.4 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 148 151 150 148 147 146 143 141 142 137 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 57 59 62 66 66 66 69 72 70 70 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 80 84 82 98 111 104 96 68 73 67 77 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 25 39 58 61 77 131 126 118 98 66 76 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 3 -2 -2 -9 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 902 970 1040 1127 1215 1308 1346 1376 1372 1417 1483 1538 1574 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.3 16.0 15.6 15.1 14.5 14.3 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.0 116.7 117.4 118.1 118.7 119.0 119.5 120.0 121.1 122.5 123.7 124.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 6 3 2 3 4 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 12 13 16 17 17 17 16 13 10 10 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -12. -13. -12. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 22. 19. 16. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.5 115.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 EIGHT 07/27/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.31 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 17.0% 15.8% 14.9% 8.7% 16.2% 15.5% 18.0% Logistic: 2.5% 6.1% 3.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.9% 3.2% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.3% 7.8% 6.4% 5.4% 3.2% 6.0% 6.3% 7.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 EIGHT 07/27/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##