* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/28/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 68 76 91 100 99 93 87 74 63 52 44 36 30 22 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 68 76 91 100 99 93 87 74 63 52 44 36 30 22 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 63 69 83 93 93 82 69 55 44 36 30 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 5 7 5 5 4 5 5 2 4 4 2 3 7 10 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 2 -2 -2 0 -3 2 -4 3 -2 2 -6 0 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 19 12 352 314 343 43 22 15 117 119 270 10 257 289 299 304 310 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.1 27.8 26.4 25.1 24.2 22.4 21.6 21.2 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 159 157 153 146 142 128 114 105 85 76 72 69 71 72 72 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 74 75 75 75 73 72 71 66 62 57 55 58 57 51 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 23 25 29 34 34 32 32 27 25 22 20 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 40 40 36 36 44 51 53 76 88 103 84 82 69 72 48 46 20 200 MB DIV 84 111 97 124 103 77 91 128 83 47 -3 1 -1 0 24 -14 -9 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -13 -8 -8 -4 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -2 1 5 1 LAND (KM) 936 962 995 1033 1020 999 1029 1038 1093 1133 1158 1207 1256 1336 1384 1424 1461 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.7 16.9 18.1 19.3 20.5 21.7 22.7 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.4 112.1 113.0 113.9 115.7 117.5 119.3 121.1 122.8 124.3 125.6 126.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 23 19 17 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 62.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 5. 1. -3. -8. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 17. 17. 17. 11. 7. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 26. 41. 50. 49. 43. 37. 24. 13. 2. -6. -14. -20. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.9 110.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/28/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 9.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 10.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.71 9.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 8.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 6.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -8.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.77 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 56% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 59.8% 47.6% 36.2% 24.1% 56.4% 52.3% 20.7% Logistic: 7.5% 38.7% 25.1% 16.4% 4.5% 28.6% 29.5% 2.3% Bayesian: 7.6% 24.2% 25.5% 9.3% 1.1% 8.5% 3.8% 0.4% Consensus: 9.9% 40.9% 32.7% 20.6% 9.9% 31.2% 28.5% 7.8% DTOPS: 19.0% 57.0% 44.0% 39.0% 27.0% 42.0% 56.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/28/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##