* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/28/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 54 59 67 77 89 94 95 90 84 77 69 62 55 46 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 54 59 67 77 89 94 95 90 84 77 69 62 55 46 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 56 60 69 80 89 90 82 70 58 49 41 35 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 18 11 11 6 3 1 10 11 5 4 4 1 1 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 0 3 -2 2 1 3 0 0 2 0 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 10 22 32 20 6 345 311 35 58 61 52 251 300 244 246 284 309 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.4 27.3 25.9 24.4 23.7 22.4 21.5 20.9 20.6 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 159 158 156 153 149 148 137 122 106 99 85 76 69 66 68 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.2 -52.4 -51.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 68 73 73 74 76 75 74 78 76 71 69 62 58 51 50 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 21 24 27 33 33 34 32 30 28 25 23 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 39 39 38 40 50 47 52 45 66 63 70 63 63 57 43 200 MB DIV 62 59 64 89 131 123 131 108 124 68 74 33 53 -11 0 -5 -18 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -4 -5 -9 -12 -6 -2 -1 -3 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 774 818 855 904 962 1020 999 1024 1028 1044 1118 1146 1164 1204 1280 1364 1384 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 14.2 15.2 16.1 17.3 18.5 19.6 20.6 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.5 109.5 110.5 111.5 113.1 114.9 116.6 118.1 119.8 121.6 123.1 124.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 23 23 23 17 16 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. 10. 6. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 19. 22. 23. 19. 15. 12. 8. 5. 2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 14. 22. 32. 44. 49. 50. 45. 39. 32. 24. 17. 10. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.6 107.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/28/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.23 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 22.2% 19.7% 19.0% 0.0% 20.8% 45.8% 37.5% Logistic: 0.5% 4.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4% 3.6% 21.4% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 4.0% 2.4% Consensus: 3.2% 9.0% 7.2% 6.6% 0.1% 8.2% 23.7% 15.7% DTOPS: 5.0% 16.0% 11.0% 10.0% 5.0% 18.0% 43.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/28/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##