* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/21/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 305 317 321 322 312 315 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.9 20.8 20.9 21.6 21.9 21.8 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 70 69 69 77 79 78 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 53 51 49 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 23 31 16 16 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 1 8 32 13 -16 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 3 3 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1265 1334 1406 1470 1536 1621 1686 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.0 126.9 127.8 128.6 129.4 130.7 132.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. -18. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -15. -20. -24. -27. -29. -30. -31. -34. -37. -41. -42. -43. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.3 126.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/21/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/21/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##