* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/18/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 72 75 78 81 80 77 69 55 44 37 27 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 70 72 75 78 81 80 77 69 55 44 37 27 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 69 69 70 71 71 68 62 52 41 33 27 22 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 11 13 17 12 9 8 7 1 2 6 5 7 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -5 0 -1 -1 0 6 1 1 -1 1 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 27 22 16 19 31 35 43 19 350 320 328 324 74 133 172 176 215 SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 26.7 25.7 24.8 22.9 21.9 22.0 21.7 22.2 21.9 21.8 21.9 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 151 151 150 147 131 121 112 91 80 81 78 83 79 77 78 78 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 82 82 78 77 77 73 70 67 64 57 53 46 46 40 36 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 25 26 27 29 30 31 29 25 22 20 17 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 21 27 27 32 29 38 50 63 74 68 53 50 41 46 36 33 18 200 MB DIV 106 126 122 91 87 53 81 39 5 -16 -1 -10 -27 -24 7 -5 -20 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -4 -4 -3 -1 3 -3 4 -1 4 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 460 528 602 621 643 737 841 944 1036 1126 1247 1382 1532 1631 1714 1790 1846 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.9 21.0 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.3 110.4 111.6 112.7 115.0 117.4 119.8 122.0 124.0 125.8 127.6 129.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 10 9 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -29. -34. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 9. 3. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. -1. -15. -25. -33. -43. -50. -56. -61. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.5 108.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/18/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.49 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 22.2% 19.2% 18.3% 11.3% 13.6% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 8.0% 6.6% 6.2% 3.8% 4.6% 3.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 32.0% 23.0% 15.0% 15.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/18/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##