* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962022 07/15/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 58 70 82 92 93 89 83 76 67 60 54 48 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 58 70 82 92 93 89 83 76 67 60 54 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 48 57 67 75 76 70 61 51 42 35 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 13 11 10 10 9 12 20 21 15 9 7 7 1 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 -4 -1 1 0 4 0 SHEAR DIR 57 63 59 56 63 72 48 71 12 16 29 38 15 10 354 132 323 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 27.9 27.1 25.7 23.7 23.2 23.5 24.0 23.7 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 157 158 158 158 156 145 137 123 101 95 96 99 96 83 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -52.7 -53.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 4 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 72 74 76 78 78 79 81 82 78 77 71 65 60 61 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 13 15 18 21 24 27 29 30 30 30 27 25 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 9 6 21 18 1 14 7 31 28 36 39 63 91 89 78 54 26 200 MB DIV 49 69 93 122 117 150 165 141 114 77 48 55 -10 -19 -11 11 -8 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 -4 -7 -7 -3 -3 0 1 3 0 LAND (KM) 535 530 510 496 478 444 402 359 406 419 539 735 991 1178 1290 1290 1183 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.2 15.1 16.4 17.8 19.3 20.4 20.9 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.3 102.0 102.6 103.1 104.1 105.1 106.4 108.5 111.2 114.5 118.1 121.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 6 8 10 14 16 17 15 12 7 3 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 26 27 27 25 20 14 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 29. 28. 27. 25. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 16. 23. 26. 26. 25. 22. 17. 14. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 40. 52. 62. 63. 59. 53. 46. 37. 30. 24. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 100.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 07/15/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.34 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 21.6% 18.3% 17.1% 0.0% 18.7% 28.2% 46.0% Logistic: 1.3% 10.8% 4.4% 2.1% 0.8% 5.9% 30.4% 14.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 2.9% 5.8% Consensus: 3.2% 12.0% 7.9% 6.5% 0.3% 8.4% 20.5% 22.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 23.0% 13.0% 7.0% 6.0% 15.0% 21.0% 33.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 07/15/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##