* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/15/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 43 39 34 31 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 43 39 34 31 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 43 38 33 30 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 21 21 19 24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 2 1 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 252 269 290 297 295 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.9 25.4 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 120 123 123 124 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 -54.9 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 40 37 36 32 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -5 -4 -11 -18 -19 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -36 -32 -60 -37 -11 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 12 10 2 7 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 868 701 538 366 231 280 573 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.2 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.8 148.5 150.1 152.0 153.8 157.7 161.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 18 18 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -16. -19. -23. -30. -37. -42. -46. -48. -50. -50. -50. -48. -47. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.6 146.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/15/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -38.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 465.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/15/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##