* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/13/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 78 74 71 68 61 52 42 35 27 20 19 19 19 21 21 22 V (KT) LAND 85 78 74 71 68 61 52 42 35 27 20 19 19 19 21 21 22 V (KT) LGEM 85 77 72 68 64 58 50 42 35 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 3 4 7 14 21 24 22 25 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 2 2 3 0 0 1 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 133 134 111 136 179 243 242 265 294 311 305 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.9 25.8 25.2 24.9 25.3 25.6 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 126 121 124 122 116 114 118 121 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 60 59 55 54 49 40 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 12 13 12 12 10 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 4 0 -3 -7 -9 -8 -14 -16 -23 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 36 26 8 -5 -7 -21 -30 -29 -38 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 3 0 2 1 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2347 2207 2066 1923 1780 1491 1246 950 644 386 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.3 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.7 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.6 135.9 137.2 138.5 141.1 143.4 146.3 149.4 152.6 156.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 14 15 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -18. -22. -25. -28. -30. -32. -34. -36. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -14. -17. -23. -33. -43. -50. -58. -65. -66. -66. -66. -64. -64. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.6 133.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/13/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 446.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/13/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##