* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/11/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 116 121 121 117 106 92 76 64 53 44 35 26 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 116 121 121 117 106 92 76 64 53 44 35 26 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 115 116 113 107 94 79 65 52 41 32 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 0 2 3 4 2 7 10 20 25 28 26 29 32 49 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 4 6 1 0 3 0 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 92 80 48 21 273 299 241 235 226 249 281 294 297 313 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.4 26.2 25.5 25.2 25.1 25.0 24.8 24.7 25.1 25.7 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 140 141 141 139 127 119 116 115 114 112 111 116 122 122 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 68 68 67 67 62 58 54 52 50 44 40 35 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 15 14 15 16 13 14 12 11 11 8 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 3 0 -7 2 -2 -10 -10 -9 -10 -14 -13 -26 -24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 27 43 50 38 35 34 24 4 1 -22 -15 -18 -12 -24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 0 -2 0 1 0 4 1 0 -1 6 7 16 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1587 1684 1787 1880 1966 2128 2317 2047 1736 1454 1180 886 575 282 136 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.8 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.8 124.2 125.6 126.8 128.0 130.5 133.2 135.8 138.6 141.2 143.8 146.6 149.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 13 14 15 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 8 5 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -18. -27. -34. -40. -46. -49. -52. -54. -56. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 14. 13. 8. 3. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 16. 16. 12. 1. -13. -29. -41. -52. -61. -70. -79. -85. -91. -92. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.5 122.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/11/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 484.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 57.9% 36.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 72.3% 40.0% 55.8% 46.5% 29.7% 8.2% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 43.6% 25.5% 18.6% 15.5% 9.9% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 59.0% 22.0% 14.0% 8.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/11/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##