* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/10/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 69 73 78 78 75 67 57 49 41 33 29 23 22 21 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 69 73 78 78 75 67 57 49 41 33 29 23 22 21 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 67 69 70 69 64 55 45 36 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 8 8 9 7 7 11 14 21 22 20 15 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 0 -1 1 1 3 4 2 6 2 6 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 343 324 3 19 21 1 338 322 272 235 231 221 248 278 304 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.9 27.7 27.5 26.8 25.3 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.6 24.2 24.8 24.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 141 144 142 140 132 117 110 110 110 110 106 112 113 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 70 72 72 72 70 66 65 62 59 55 49 44 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 16 14 13 12 9 8 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 6 8 6 6 4 -1 -1 -14 -12 -19 -13 -17 -11 -24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 48 46 32 28 51 44 47 32 28 0 -8 -16 -18 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 7 6 5 1 3 3 7 15 11 8 9 9 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1294 1392 1476 1562 1654 1828 1977 2129 2279 2021 1769 1510 1245 955 666 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.8 121.2 122.4 123.6 126.1 128.5 130.9 133.4 135.8 138.1 140.5 143.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 14 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 20 11 12 11 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 18. 23. 23. 20. 12. 2. -6. -14. -22. -26. -32. -33. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.4 118.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/10/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 7.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.4% 42.0% 34.5% 25.0% 16.4% 24.8% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 14.0% 24.0% 16.1% 9.9% 2.6% 4.1% 1.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 2.7% 3.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.0% 23.3% 17.2% 11.8% 6.4% 9.7% 5.8% 0.5% DTOPS: 26.0% 35.0% 26.0% 20.0% 13.0% 16.0% 6.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/10/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##