* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/10/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 48 51 57 61 64 61 56 51 43 36 28 24 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 48 51 57 61 64 61 56 51 43 36 28 24 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 45 45 46 48 49 48 45 39 33 27 21 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 5 7 13 11 10 11 12 8 18 24 23 21 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 3 2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -1 2 4 3 1 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 297 307 328 351 12 36 32 10 347 335 261 238 240 262 279 297 311 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.5 27.7 27.4 26.6 25.6 24.7 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.2 24.7 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 148 152 151 142 139 130 119 111 109 109 108 105 110 109 110 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.6 -54.7 -55.2 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 74 75 75 72 69 66 63 60 53 47 39 33 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 14 15 16 16 17 16 15 15 13 12 9 7 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -6 2 8 11 0 -4 0 -9 -6 -10 0 -3 -2 -28 -26 200 MB DIV 32 39 41 61 59 47 58 32 36 36 15 6 4 -5 -22 -7 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 2 4 2 -1 -1 0 0 6 8 6 3 6 9 10 LAND (KM) 1112 1197 1295 1403 1493 1654 1835 1993 2105 2233 2088 1802 1520 1240 997 787 613 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.9 118.3 119.8 121.2 123.6 126.1 128.5 130.5 132.7 135.2 137.8 140.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 15 19 24 17 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 12. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 6. 5. 4. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 21. 24. 21. 16. 11. 3. -4. -12. -16. -23. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.3 115.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/10/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 24.0% 21.5% 20.6% 12.6% 19.0% 16.0% 11.7% Logistic: 4.2% 15.8% 8.7% 5.3% 1.0% 4.2% 1.4% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 14.1% 10.3% 8.7% 4.5% 7.8% 5.9% 4.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/10/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##