* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/17/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 69 67 64 59 56 48 38 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 69 67 64 59 56 48 38 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 73 69 65 61 55 50 43 37 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 18 14 11 6 2 4 11 15 16 25 23 22 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -5 -6 -2 3 3 3 3 4 0 -2 -6 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 34 37 35 40 51 174 154 168 158 161 158 159 169 152 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.1 24.7 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.1 23.9 23.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 120 120 118 116 117 117 111 107 107 104 103 101 98 98 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 73 73 69 64 59 53 51 47 46 43 38 32 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 25 26 25 26 27 25 21 19 17 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 68 65 65 66 54 66 61 73 70 75 62 45 30 26 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 27 32 48 32 5 6 -18 -12 -5 9 16 -6 -16 -32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -8 -3 0 -3 3 4 6 0 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 524 595 588 594 608 646 714 798 867 915 988 1044 1083 1132 1190 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.3 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.5 111.5 112.2 112.8 113.8 114.8 115.7 116.6 117.6 118.7 119.6 120.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 367 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. -29. -33. -36. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. -4. -9. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -8. -11. -16. -19. -27. -37. -46. -54. -62. -69. -74. -77. -77. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.3 109.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/17/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/17/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##