* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/16/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 81 84 86 86 78 66 54 44 36 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 78 81 84 86 86 78 66 54 44 36 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 79 80 81 80 76 67 57 49 43 38 33 28 24 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 26 23 21 15 15 19 16 12 10 4 8 18 21 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 2 2 -1 -1 -4 -4 -2 0 -3 -9 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 81 81 76 78 55 55 58 52 69 120 166 164 157 145 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.7 27.6 25.5 25.9 25.5 24.9 25.1 24.7 24.9 25.0 24.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 148 151 140 117 121 116 111 112 106 109 111 111 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 80 81 78 77 77 74 74 68 66 57 53 46 40 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 21 23 23 25 23 20 17 15 13 12 10 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 109 97 81 86 73 90 74 62 60 50 52 44 45 41 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 111 105 89 99 96 54 36 12 2 -5 3 -31 -20 8 15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -5 -6 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 0 1 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 316 302 302 326 354 432 551 559 568 618 731 794 852 928 1032 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.8 18.7 18.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.3 103.9 104.5 105.4 106.3 108.2 110.1 111.6 112.6 113.9 115.5 116.3 116.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 10 8 6 5 7 6 3 3 6 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 13 11 15 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -20. -22. -25. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 3. -9. -21. -31. -39. -47. -54. -61. -65. -66. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.2 103.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/16/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 7.9% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 9.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 30.0% 24.0% 22.0% 18.0% 17.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/16/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##