* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/15/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 84 86 88 87 82 71 61 50 43 34 28 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 81 84 86 88 87 82 71 61 50 43 34 28 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 81 85 85 84 82 74 63 54 46 40 35 31 26 22 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 24 28 26 20 15 17 16 15 14 4 7 13 19 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -1 3 5 2 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 0 -7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 88 92 82 84 90 61 53 52 46 40 51 138 178 171 160 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 26.6 25.6 25.8 25.2 24.9 25.0 24.3 24.4 24.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 149 149 148 149 129 118 120 113 110 111 104 104 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 81 81 80 80 78 78 75 72 66 62 55 50 44 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 20 23 23 24 22 21 18 16 13 13 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 97 99 92 99 93 94 82 77 63 68 55 64 53 59 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 137 123 106 94 90 57 29 18 26 11 8 -23 -18 -39 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 1 -1 -2 -9 -1 -7 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 325 322 318 325 341 384 479 571 566 597 653 740 818 899 979 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.8 18.9 18.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.9 103.3 103.8 104.7 105.5 107.3 108.9 110.7 112.1 113.3 114.5 115.7 116.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 14 13 18 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 7. -4. -14. -25. -32. -41. -47. -55. -60. -61. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.0 102.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/15/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.74 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 15.2% 4.0% 2.8% 1.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.2% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 36.0% 31.0% 23.0% 17.0% 13.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/15/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##