* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP012022 05/30/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 93 91 86 76 68 62 61 60 59 60 61 62 62 65 66 V (KT) LAND 95 95 74 59 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 95 92 73 58 46 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 5 4 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 290 314 299 251 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 149 146 144 139 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 71 71 73 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 73 96 95 79 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 82 110 121 98 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 88 27 -31 -52 -78 -100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.4 96.8 96.2 95.6 95.1 94.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 12 9 9 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -10. -15. -19. -23. -25. -26. -27. -27. -28. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. -2. -0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -9. -19. -27. -33. -34. -35. -36. -35. -34. -33. -33. -30. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 15.1 97.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012022 AGATHA 05/30/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.10 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 22.1% 19.2% 17.8% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.0% 18.8% 13.7% 8.3% 5.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 3.2% 2.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 14.7% 11.7% 9.1% 5.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012022 AGATHA 05/30/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##