* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP012022 05/30/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 96 94 91 81 67 61 58 57 57 58 59 60 61 64 66 V (KT) LAND 95 96 96 94 71 43 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 95 94 91 87 68 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 4 7 7 3 15 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -2 -4 0 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 313 327 311 296 258 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.3 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 152 151 148 135 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 7 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 71 72 73 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 58 58 81 82 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 44 83 91 87 91 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 153 116 78 13 -23 -119 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.6 16.1 17.2 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.0 97.5 96.9 96.3 95.7 94.9 94.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 18 14 12 11 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -9. -14. -18. -22. -24. -25. -25. -26. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -4. -14. -28. -34. -36. -38. -38. -37. -36. -35. -34. -31. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 14.6 98.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012022 AGATHA 05/30/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 23.1% 20.1% 18.8% 12.3% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 25.0% 39.3% 29.1% 20.5% 13.1% 6.0% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 5.5% 22.0% 13.2% 7.6% 1.8% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.6% 28.1% 20.8% 15.6% 9.1% 7.5% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012022 AGATHA 05/30/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##