* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP012022 05/30/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 99 100 99 95 86 71 63 60 59 59 59 60 61 62 65 67 V (KT) LAND 95 99 100 99 95 54 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 95 99 98 94 89 52 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 4 3 4 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 1 0 -3 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 306 327 323 301 241 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.6 27.8 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 154 151 149 141 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 8 9 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 68 66 71 72 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 13 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 52 56 66 91 84 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 54 44 79 95 109 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 194 152 111 57 2 -67 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.6 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.4 98.0 97.5 96.9 96.3 95.5 94.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 26 18 13 11 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -2. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -24. -24. -24. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 4. -0. -9. -24. -32. -35. -36. -36. -36. -35. -34. -33. -30. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 14.3 98.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012022 AGATHA 05/30/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.17 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.74 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.2% 26.8% 22.7% 21.9% 13.8% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 47.0% 59.4% 50.2% 39.1% 30.9% 29.1% 4.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 50.6% 70.7% 62.2% 49.6% 24.6% 22.8% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 40.6% 52.3% 45.0% 36.9% 23.1% 23.1% 1.7% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012022 AGATHA 05/30/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##