* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP012022 05/29/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 65 67 68 64 58 55 53 52 52 54 54 55 57 57 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 65 67 68 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 59 59 56 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 12 6 3 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -3 0 1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 263 266 268 313 262 258 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.2 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 160 158 158 153 145 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 7 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 72 73 72 70 75 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 15 14 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 31 30 43 58 73 93 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 115 103 118 118 90 93 91 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 -3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 238 212 186 145 106 24 -58 -119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.8 98.6 98.5 98.1 97.8 96.9 95.8 94.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 36 30 24 20 14 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 9. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.0 98.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012022 AGATHA 05/29/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 9.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.74 11.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.54 8.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 10.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 8.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -9.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.27 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 57% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.8% 69.5% 53.4% 39.6% 26.8% 56.7% 41.7% 15.3% Logistic: 14.6% 52.7% 34.6% 24.9% 15.8% 44.2% 31.8% 9.3% Bayesian: 6.2% 26.1% 25.6% 11.1% 2.1% 20.4% 13.5% 6.3% Consensus: 15.5% 49.4% 37.9% 25.2% 14.9% 40.4% 29.0% 10.3% DTOPS: 18.0% 31.0% 17.0% 10.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012022 AGATHA 05/29/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##