* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP012022 05/29/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 66 70 74 73 63 57 54 51 51 51 51 51 52 52 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 66 70 74 57 38 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 58 60 61 61 49 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 7 8 2 4 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 -1 3 -2 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 257 249 249 253 4 250 223 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.3 27.6 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 160 159 159 157 146 139 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 7 5 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 72 73 72 73 76 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 15 12 10 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 34 35 51 79 107 97 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 115 122 110 135 139 107 100 104 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 253 226 200 178 157 68 -40 -105 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.6 15.3 16.1 17.0 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.4 98.2 97.5 96.4 95.4 94.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 4 5 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 39 34 28 26 17 8 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 13. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 23. 13. 7. 4. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.8 98.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012022 AGATHA 05/29/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 13.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 11.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.82 15.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 11.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 11.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 10.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -12.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 80% is 6.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 79% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 68% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.1% 80.0% 68.5% 58.4% 46.9% 78.5% 68.2% 25.9% Logistic: 31.2% 71.3% 60.0% 49.5% 30.5% 73.6% 52.4% 17.5% Bayesian: 22.5% 58.0% 70.7% 40.3% 3.8% 44.6% 23.9% 4.0% Consensus: 29.3% 69.8% 66.4% 49.4% 27.1% 65.6% 48.2% 15.8% DTOPS: 26.0% 56.0% 37.0% 18.0% 17.0% 20.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012022 AGATHA 05/29/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##