* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP012022 05/28/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 63 70 75 81 79 67 59 54 51 49 49 49 49 51 52 V (KT) LAND 50 57 63 70 75 81 79 47 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 62 65 68 69 67 43 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 8 9 7 2 3 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 -1 -1 3 1 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 207 251 254 258 301 281 233 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 28.9 27.9 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 161 160 158 157 152 142 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 6 5 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 75 74 75 74 74 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 16 16 15 13 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 27 32 31 34 72 85 114 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 142 148 118 142 105 90 91 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 263 243 223 199 175 122 18 -81 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.6 16.7 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.0 98.1 98.2 98.1 98.0 97.5 96.6 95.6 94.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 5 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 41 37 32 27 20 12 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 64.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 20. 25. 31. 29. 17. 9. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.6 98.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012022 AGATHA 05/28/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 14.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 14.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.83 17.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 12.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 12.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 11.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -13.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.33 3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 85% is 6.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 77% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 83% is 12.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 44.7% 85.0% 76.9% 68.5% 53.1% 83.4% 69.1% 29.3% Logistic: 49.3% 80.5% 72.9% 64.7% 47.3% 81.3% 65.1% 30.9% Bayesian: 57.5% 80.7% 86.1% 69.6% 28.2% 60.3% 43.2% 7.3% Consensus: 50.5% 82.1% 78.6% 67.6% 42.9% 75.0% 59.1% 22.5% DTOPS: 20.0% 51.0% 32.0% 26.0% 14.0% 45.0% 20.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012022 AGATHA 05/28/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##