* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP012022 05/28/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 56 61 70 72 66 59 50 46 44 44 44 45 45 45 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 56 61 70 72 58 38 31 30 29 29 29 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 55 59 59 51 36 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 6 5 3 4 4 10 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 0 -1 4 4 1 -3 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 216 208 240 249 263 309 308 252 248 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.2 29.8 29.4 28.6 27.6 27.4 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 166 165 164 160 157 149 138 136 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.3 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 6 5 7 5 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 76 76 74 73 72 74 78 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 15 17 15 11 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 16 29 29 32 51 76 96 108 108 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 109 149 145 147 132 99 101 109 121 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 323 304 285 265 245 172 82 -11 -112 -61 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.5 15.2 15.9 17.0 17.8 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.3 98.5 98.6 98.6 98.7 98.4 97.7 96.8 95.6 94.9 94.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 4 5 7 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 65 59 51 44 28 18 11 4 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. -2. -4. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 30. 32. 26. 19. 10. 6. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.1 98.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012022 AGATHA 05/28/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 15.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 10.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.81 14.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.70 12.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 6.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 7.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -11.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.52 5.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 74% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 71% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.1% 70.1% 64.1% 54.6% 45.6% 74.3% 70.9% 53.1% Logistic: 13.1% 55.3% 46.9% 32.8% 14.5% 57.7% 66.7% 38.3% Bayesian: 35.1% 63.1% 70.8% 33.9% 7.7% 35.2% 27.8% 33.0% Consensus: 23.4% 62.8% 60.6% 40.4% 22.6% 55.7% 55.1% 41.5% DTOPS: 9.0% 46.0% 37.0% 23.0% 21.0% 35.0% 25.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012022 AGATHA 05/28/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##