* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012022 05/28/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 39 44 49 61 67 67 57 52 48 47 48 49 50 51 53 V (KT) LAND 30 33 39 44 49 61 67 67 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 40 45 48 47 37 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 2 5 5 7 8 6 4 3 15 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 0 0 -1 1 2 0 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 200 159 188 228 259 287 331 237 258 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.4 30.1 29.6 28.3 27.8 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 167 167 168 166 164 160 146 139 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 6 5 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 77 76 72 73 72 74 75 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 13 14 18 18 15 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 16 23 35 31 38 64 73 101 95 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 90 129 163 171 131 113 95 60 133 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -6 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 350 339 329 308 288 221 168 75 -65 -111 -90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 14.1 14.5 15.2 16.4 17.1 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.0 98.3 98.6 98.6 98.7 98.6 98.2 97.3 96.0 95.1 94.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 3 5 7 7 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 55 59 56 53 39 30 18 9 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 28. 30. 33. 36. 38. 41. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 14. 20. 31. 37. 37. 27. 22. 18. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 98.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012022 ONE 05/28/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 15.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 8.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.84 13.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.80 12.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -10.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.50 4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 65% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 66% is 14.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 63.3% 55.2% 43.9% 0.0% 65.5% 68.9% 66.5% Logistic: 14.7% 62.0% 55.9% 40.6% 13.9% 69.3% 77.0% 48.7% Bayesian: 17.2% 27.3% 31.2% 7.5% 0.7% 15.8% 30.3% 24.9% Consensus: 15.3% 50.9% 47.5% 30.7% 4.9% 50.2% 58.7% 46.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 21.0% 11.0% 6.0% 5.0% 16.0% 28.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012022 ONE 05/28/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##