* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012022 05/28/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 49 57 70 79 81 73 66 58 58 58 58 58 58 57 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 49 57 70 79 81 73 50 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 43 51 60 65 65 48 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 5 2 3 1 4 4 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -2 0 0 5 3 0 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 210 205 138 169 167 291 315 43 215 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.7 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.5 29.9 29.1 28.7 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 168 167 167 167 167 163 154 149 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 6 5 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 78 78 77 75 74 75 75 78 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 14 16 16 19 18 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 7 15 25 33 39 53 65 103 100 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 80 112 135 143 156 122 80 81 96 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -6 -2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 345 352 360 350 340 298 248 155 24 -32 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 2 1 1 2 4 7 7 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 53 60 61 60 56 42 25 14 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 70.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 18. 25. 29. 31. 34. 37. 40. 43. 45. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 9. 11. 5. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 27. 40. 49. 51. 43. 36. 28. 28. 28. 28. 28. 28. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 97.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012022 ONE 05/28/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 17.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.74 13.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 14.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 9.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -11.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.51 5.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 76% is 6.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 82% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 87% is 14.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 80% is 17.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 75.6% 64.0% 51.8% 0.0% 81.8% 87.2% 80.3% Logistic: 20.6% 77.7% 69.0% 59.6% 31.4% 88.0% 87.6% 63.7% Bayesian: 3.2% 42.0% 39.4% 18.6% 3.1% 36.1% 20.7% 34.4% Consensus: 13.5% 65.1% 57.5% 43.3% 11.5% 68.6% 65.2% 59.5% DTOPS: 4.0% 38.0% 16.0% 13.0% 6.0% 32.0% 30.0% 32.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012022 ONE 05/28/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##